Japan · General Account BudgetSocial security at ¥37.72T is Japan's largest budget line, accounting for a third of all spending. Japan has the world's oldest population (29% aged 65+). Without structural reform, MoF projects social security will crowd out all other spending within two decades.
Social security: 33.5% of all spendingJapan has run a deficit in every fiscal year since 1975 (except FY1990). More than three yen out of every ten spent is borrowed. Outstanding JGB balance: ~¥1,061T (~178% of GDP). ~90% of JGBs are held domestically.
Bond dependency: 31.5% · JGB ≈ ¥1,061TJapan's defence budget surged 16.6% in FY2024, part of a five-year plan to nearly double spending to ~2% of GDP by FY2027. Procurements include Tomahawk cruise missiles, expanded F-35 fleet, cyber warfare capabilities.
Defence: +16.6% · Five-year doubling plan¥17.79T in transfers ensure every local government can provide baseline public services regardless of its tax base. Japanese local governments are heavily dependent on central transfers.
LAT grants: ¥17.8T · 15.8% of spendingEach 1 percentage point rate rise adds ~¥3.7T to annual interest with a 3-year lag. The BoJ ended negative rates in March 2024. Interest is projected to hit ¥13T by FY2026 — a 35% jump in two years.
Interest rising: ¥9.6T → ¥13T by FY2026Japan's fertility rate hit a record low of 1.20 in 2023. FY2024 included ¥5.3T for the Children and Families Agency (+10% y/y), covering childcare subsidies, expanded allowances, and fertility treatment.
Children's budget: ¥5.3T · +10%Primary sources: Primary sources: Ministry of Finance Japan — Highlights of FY2024 Draft Budget; Japanese Public Finance Fact Sheet 2024/2025 (MoF); FY2024 supplementary budget; Nippon.com — Japan's Fiscal 2024 Budget analysis.
Methodology: Japan's FY2024 = Apr 2024–Mar 2025. GDP reference: ~¥591T nominal. USD conversion: avg ~¥151/$. Revenue: consumption tax ¥23.8T is national share (local earmarks excluded). National debt service ¥27.0T = ¥9.6T interest + ¥17.4T principal. Defence ¥7.92T is general account total. Social security ¥37.72T covers only the general account subsidy; total public social security is ~¥136T across all accounts.