Demographic Trajectories
Comparing current populations with their implied equilibrium — the population level sustainable by today's births (if births remain stable, not birth rates!). This reveals where current demographic trajectories are leading nations.
Country | Current Population | Annual Births (2024)Births (2024) | Equilibrium PopulationEquilibrium | Implied ChangeChange |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 USA (white) 191.4M → 126.5M | 191,400,000 | 1,581,000 8.3 per 1000 | 126,480,000 0.66× current | -33.9% |
2 Russia (ethnic) 103.0M → 76.2M | 103,000,000 | 953,000 9.3 per 1000 | 76,240,000 0.74× current | -26.0% |
3 Turkey 85.7M → 75.4M | 85,700,000 | 943,000 11.0 per 1000 | 75,440,000 0.88× current | -12.0% |
4 Germany (ethnic) 62.0M → 35.4M | 62,000,000 | 442,000 7.1 per 1000 | 35,360,000 0.57× current | -43.0% |
5 France (ethnic) 45.0M → 35.0M | 45,000,000 | 437,000 9.7 per 1000 | 34,960,000 0.78× current | -22.3% |
6 United Kingdom (white) 52.0M → 27.3M | 52,000,000 | 341,000 6.6 per 1000 | 27,280,000 0.52× current | -47.5% |
7 Italy (ethnic) 51.9M → 22.7M | 51,900,000 | 284,000 5.5 per 1000 | 22,720,000 0.44× current | -56.2% |
8 Poland 37.0M → 20.2M | 37,000,000 | 252,000 6.8 per 1000 | 20,160,000 0.54× current | -45.5% |
9 Jews (global) 15.5M → 20.0M | 15,500,000 | 250,000 16.1 per 1000 | 20,000,000 1.29× current | +29.0% |
10 Canada (white) 28.7M → 15.7M | 28,700,000 | 196,000 6.8 per 1000 | 15,680,000 0.55× current | -45.4% |
11 Spain (ethnic) 39.3M → 15.7M | 39,300,000 | 196,000 5.0 per 1000 | 15,680,000 0.40× current | -60.1% |
12 Romania 19.0M → 14.5M | 19,000,000 | 181,000 9.5 per 1000 | 14,480,000 0.76× current | -23.8% |
13 Ukraine 30.0M → 14.0M | 30,000,000 | 175,000 5.8 per 1000 | 14,000,000 0.47× current | -53.3% |
14 Australia (white) 20.7M → 13.8M | 20,700,000 | 172,000 8.3 per 1000 | 13,760,000 0.66× current | -33.5% |
15 Portugal 10.7M → 6.8M | 10,700,000 | 85,000 7.9 per 1000 | 6,800,000 0.64× current | -36.4% |
16 Hungary 9.5M → 6.2M | 9,500,000 | 77,500 8.2 per 1000 | 6,200,000 0.65× current | -34.7% |
17 Greece 10.4M → 5.5M | 10,400,000 | 68,500 6.6 per 1000 | 5,480,000 0.53× current | -47.3% |
18 Belarus 9.1M → 5.1M | 9,100,000 | 64,000 7.0 per 1000 | 5,120,000 0.56× current | -43.7% |
19 Sweden (ethnic) 6.8M → 5.1M | 6,800,000 | 64,000 9.4 per 1000 | 5,120,000 0.75× current | -24.7% |
20 Bulgaria 6.4M → 4.9M | 6,437,000 | 61,000 9.5 per 1000 | 4,880,000 0.76× current | -24.2% |
21 Serbia 6.7M → 4.7M | 6,700,000 | 59,000 8.8 per 1000 | 4,720,000 0.70× current | -29.6% |
22 Austria (ethnic) 6.7M → 3.8M | 6,700,000 | 47,000 7.0 per 1000 | 3,760,000 0.56× current | -43.9% |
23 Switzerland (ethnic) 6.6M → 3.7M | 6,600,000 | 46,000 7.0 per 1000 | 3,680,000 0.56× current | -44.2% |
24 Denmark (ethnic) 5.0M → 3.4M | 5,000,000 | 43,000 8.6 per 1000 | 3,440,000 0.69× current | -31.2% |
25 Norway (ethnic) 4.5M → 3.3M | 4,500,000 | 41,000 9.1 per 1000 | 3,280,000 0.73× current | -27.1% |
26 Ireland (ethnic) 4.1M → 2.9M | 4,100,000 | 36,000 8.8 per 1000 | 2,880,000 0.70× current | -29.8% |
27 Finland (ethnic) 5.2M → 2.9M | 5,200,000 | 36,000 6.9 per 1000 | 2,880,000 0.55× current | -44.6% |
28 Croatia 3.9M → 2.5M | 3,875,000 | 31,500 8.1 per 1000 | 2,520,000 0.65× current | -35.0% |
29 Bosnia and Herzegovina 3.2M → 2.0M | 3,164,000 | 24,500 7.7 per 1000 | 1,960,000 0.62× current | -38.1% |
30 Lithuania 2.5M → 1.6M | 2,500,000 | 20,000 8.0 per 1000 | 1,600,000 0.64× current | -36.0% |
31 Slovenia 2.1M → 1.5M | 2,100,000 | 18,500 8.8 per 1000 | 1,480,000 0.70× current | -29.5% |
32 Latvia 1.9M → 1.4M | 1,872,000 | 17,900 9.6 per 1000 | 1,432,000 0.76× current | -23.5% |
33 North Macedonia 1.8M → 1.4M | 1,836,000 | 17,000 9.3 per 1000 | 1,360,000 0.74× current | -25.9% |
34 Estonia 1.4M → 776K | 1,375,000 | 9,700 7.1 per 1000 | 776,000 0.56× current | -43.6% |
About the methodology
The implied equilibrium population is calculated by multiplying annual births by approximately 80 years (life expectancy). This represents the population that could be sustained if current birth rates continued indefinitely with no migration.
The difference between current population and equilibrium reveals the scale of demographic adjustment ahead. Positive values indicate potential for natural growth, while negative values suggest decline without immigration or fertility increases.
Data: 2024 birth statistics and population estimates. Includes European nations, Anglosphere countries, Turkey, and ethnic groups for comparison.